For Putin, a Deal with Trump Could Yield More Than Land in Ukraine

While many in the West are questioning what Washington and Trump stand to gain from this meeting, there is no doubt in Russia that a deal would be a major victory for the Kremlin.

Photo: Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump

U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin are eager to meet, and diplomats from both countries are already working to make it happen. While many in the West wonder what Washington and Trump would gain from such a meeting, in Russia, there is no hesitation—any agreement would be seen as a significant win for the Kremlin.

By criticizing former President Joseph Biden and his policy toward Ukraine, Trump has stepped into a contentious arena. It would have been far easier for Trump to turn a blind eye to Ukraine, as he has done with other issues, and pretend nothing was happening. However, he promised to end the war in Eastern Europe as soon as he won the election, even before entering the White House.

Such an initial stance does not bode well for diplomatic negotiations, as it allows the other side to negotiate from a position of strength. When combined with the current situation on the frontlines and the months-long confusion in the West, the challenges for Trump become even more complex.

Putin’s Position

For Russia, the situation is simpler—at least until the moment, any agreement is presented to the public. This is especially true when it comes to calculating losses, whether demographic, military, economic, or diplomatic.

For Putin, any deal that grants Russia de facto and de jure gains, and is endorsed by the West, would be a victory. His enthusiasm for negotiating with Trump, along with the broad support for this move in Russia, underscores this point. Russia is well aware that its resources are not unlimited and that the war in Ukraine is taking a toll. A three-year conflict involving the most advanced weaponry in the world is bound to leave deep scars.

The rapprochement between Putin and Trump comes on the third anniversary of Russia’s aggression against Ukraine. War fatigue is palpable on all sides. If Ukraine is at risk of running out of soldiers, Russia faces the danger of its economy entering a prolonged race against the West, which has been accelerating arms production for three years. This is why Putin must capitalize on Trump’s desire to end the war.

In a short span, both leaders have spoken about economic cooperation between their countries, following years of no direct contact between the White House and the Kremlin.

“I am in serious talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin to end the war, as well as to pursue major economic development deals between the United States and Russia. The talks are going very well,” Trump wrote on his Truth Social platform.

A day later, on Tuesday, Putin spoke favorably of Trump on state television, stating that the U.S. president is acting “in the interest of Ukraine” and “to preserve Ukrainian statehood.” Putin then publicly offered Trump the opportunity to jointly exploit rare minerals in Russia, emphasizing that the world’s largest country possesses “orders of magnitude more” of these resources than Ukraine.

Putin made this statement just hours after Trump met with French President Emmanuel Macron, during which Ukrainian rare minerals—sought by Trump for American companies as compensation for U.S. aid to Kyiv—were reportedly discussed.

While Macron was still in the United States, neighboring Canada imposed new sanctions on Russian officials, individuals, foundations, and even the head of the Russian Ski Federation. These sanctions were a symbolic message from Prime Minister Justin Trudeau to Washington.

Post-War: Sanctions and China

Putin’s offer to Trump regarding joint exploitation of Russian minerals, coupled with Trump’s confirmation of ongoing economic talks, is a ticking time bomb for the West. If the United States agrees to such deals, it would necessitate lifting the extensive sanctions against Russia, potentially causing divisions within the Western alliance. For now, Europe and Canada are not ready for such a move.

Putin is offering rare minerals that American companies are eager to acquire. If Trump accepts, Putin will secure peace in Ukraine and Russia, a suspension of sanctions, and divisions within the West. Macron was aware of this when he told Trump in Washington that the U.S. should focus its economic war on China, not Europe.

The inclusion of China in this equation is no coincidence. After the war in Eastern Europe concludes, Trump plans to focus on containing China. However, any U.S. economic strategy against China is doomed to fail without European support. This is why some supporters of Trump and Putin’s negotiations are now considering whether Russia might assist the U.S. in its confrontation with China.

Regardless of China, Putin is determined to see sanctions against Russia lifted. Over the past three years, he has demonstrated that Moscow cannot be diplomatically isolated in much of the world, but he has failed to achieve his ultimate goal—reducing dependence on the U.S. dollar and the economic and financial mechanisms controlled by the West.

Putin is ready to negotiate with Trump as soon as possible. Economic cooperation with Trump could be more valuable than gaining control over a small town in Eastern Ukraine, as it would lead to the lifting of sanctions and the entry of American companies into Russia. These companies, which supported Trump’s rise to power, could then establish operations in Russia. If Ukraine were to concede its rare minerals to American companies, the same players would emerge as key actors on both sides of the Russian-Ukrainian border.

Putin now has the opportunity to capitalize on what his troops have achieved in Ukraine and what his economy has accomplished under wartime conditions. A deal with Trump would mean an end to Western isolation, the lifting of sanctions, divisions among U.S. allies, and a devastated Ukraine serving as a warning to Russia’s neighbors about the consequences of defying Moscow. In such a scenario, Washington and Trump would gain far less, while Ukraine and Europe would gain even less.

European resistance to Trump, particularly from Paris, London, and Berlin, could pressure Washington to consider Kyiv’s and Europe’s positions in negotiations with Putin. This would test the U.S.’s relationship with its European allies.

Europeans argue that Putin cannot be trusted, citing his 2008 invasion of Georgia, the 2014 annexation of Crimea, and the 2022 attack on Kyiv. They are not alone in this view. Current U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, speaking as a senator on a Spanish-language channel, stated that he “does not believe anything coming from the Kremlin” and that Russia “invaded” Ukraine, which is “defending itself.” It will be interesting to see what Rubio and the U.S. delegation negotiate with the Russians and whether those not at the negotiating table will trust the outcome.

The article was previously published on nap.ba.

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