Germany Votes: Shaping Its Next Government and Ties with Washington

On Sunday, Germany will hold the most important and uncertain election of this century. Never before has a single party had such a strong chance to change the existing system—with the backing of the world's most powerful nation.

Photo: Alice Weidel

The United States has had enormous influence over German politics since the end of World War II, partly due to its numerous military bases there. Moreover, what is known as American “soft power” has remained largely unquestioned in a country with a long and rich history of political and social thought.

Germany, which has long looked to Washington—particularly the current government under the administration of Joseph Biden—has been in shock since Donald Trump’s return to the White House. The current U.S. administration believes that Berlin is pursuing the wrong policies. U.S. Vice President JD Vance claims that Germany is being destroyed by illegal migration and deindustrialization, while the world's richest man, Elon Musk, criticizes its bureaucracy, saying it is terrible based on his experience running a company there. Musk has stated that the “only hope” for Germany is the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD), which the government views as a radical right-wing party.

A Tough Time for Polls

Since the emergence of COVID-19, economic problems have become more evident. When the pandemic ended, the war in Ukraine began, causing a major shock to German companies. The largest economy in Europe lost access to cheap Russian energy and the vast Russian market, where German companies had long been thriving, due to sanctions imposed on Moscow over its aggression against Ukraine.

Another issue has been brewing in the background—(il)legal migration to Germany, particularly since 2016. While the government in Berlin, along with many German media outlets, often dismissed any criticism of migration and accused critics of xenophobia, the issue has become increasingly important. Some frame it as a security concern, given the rise in attacks on citizens, while a few views it from an economic perspective—an influx of immigrants means cheaper labor.

AfD has been Germany's loudest critic of migration, adding ideological and demographic concerns to security and economic arguments. The party has fueled fears among millions of Germans that their country is losing its identity. Given the mounting problems, it is no surprise that AfD is gaining strength, especially since other parties tend to approach these issues with “kid gloves.”

To improve its image—since AfD is widely seen in Germany as an extreme right-wing party that has not distanced itself enough from Nazi heritage—the party has begun rebranding itself, following the example of Marine Le Pen in France.

AfD’s co-leader, Alice Weidel, attempts to present its radical stances on migration, the European Union, NATO, and the euro as acceptable policies. She claims to be a liberal, citing former British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher as her role model. The leader of the German right-wing party is in a relationship with a migrant of Sri Lankan origin, supports Israel, opposes setting a minimum wage in Germany, backs Trump, and calls for the deportation of certain migrants, especially Muslims. Speaking about the state of Germany and her same-sex relationship, she said: “I don't want to live in a society with a Muslim majority under Sharia law, where I could be thrown off a rooftop with a bag over my head.”

Mainstream Parties Have No Answer

Germany’s major parties largely have no response to AfD’s rising popularity. About fifteen months ago, there were discussions about banning the party through a court ruling, as suggested by its political rivals.

Recent polls show AfD at around 20% support, just behind the Christian Democratic Union/Christian Social Union (CDU/CSU), which has about 30%. Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s Social Democrats (SPD) and the ruling Greens each stand at around 15%. No other party is certain to pass the 5% threshold required to enter parliament.

One major challenge for AfD is that all leading German parties have vowed not to form a coalition with them, meaning that even with significant public support, they may not be able to take power. However, Weidel has received backing from Musk, who has even addressed AfD rallies via video link. This week, Musk shared a post on his social network X in which a user asked, “Is it time for Germany to be liberated again?”—to which Musk responded, “Yes, seriously.”

Last Friday, American support for AfD reached unprecedented levels. Vice President JD Vance met with Weidel after causing outrage—bringing some to tears—at the Munich Security Conference, where German hosts accused him of interfering in their elections. In his speech, Vance echoed AfD’s platform, particularly on migration.

After the Elections

As things stand, neither AfD nor any other party will have enough votes to form a government alone after Sunday’s election. The most likely outcome is another “grand coalition” between CDU/CSU and SPD, as last seen under Angela Merkel’s government. In that case, the chancellor would likely be the CDU’s leader, Friedrich Merz.

However, if Germany's political elite excluded AfD from power, they could face backlash from the White House. This would be especially risky for Germany’s economy, as Trump has threatened tariffs and has leverage over energy prices.

If German parties leave AfD in the opposition, it would mark Trump’s first major foreign policy defeat. That makes this election even more significant, as the new Berlin government will have to respond to Trump’s stance on Russia and Ukraine. In other words, forming Germany’s next government will also be a test of whether Europeans have the strength and willingness to stand up to Trump.

Regardless of the election outcome, some policies will inevitably change. Migration is already high on the priority list. Many in Europe and the West have realized that keeping the doors wide open for immigrants is unsustainable, and they have been preparing for a policy shift for some time.

Whether Germany will address the root causes of migration or just its consequences remains unclear. It would be absurd to expect the continued destruction of the Middle East and Africa while shutting the doors to those who have lost everything there.

As discussions about the displacement of people from Gaza continue, a parallel debate about censorship is unfolding in Germany. Former Greek Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis, through his political project, reports on social media that while mainstream media remain silent, German police have been disrupting events featuring Francesca Albanese, the UN Special Rapporteur on the Occupied Palestinian Territories, who speaks about Palestinian suffering. “Totalitarianism has returned to Germany even before AfD has won,” Varoufakis wrote on X.

Germany’s stance on Palestine and Israel mirrors the position of Joseph Biden and Kamala Harris, as well as the response of Muslim voters and liberals who previously supported the Democrats. Many of them backed Trump or simply refused to vote for Harris. One of the key questions in this German election is the turnout of immigrants with voting rights.

Managing Germany’s political landscape has become increasingly difficult. Problems are mounting, and external influence—both direct and loud, as in the case of Vance and Musk, and indirect and quiet, through those who have migrated to Germany—is growing. Any development in this election would not be surprising, including the possibility of the results being annulled, as happened in Romania a few months ago.

Everything points to significant reforms awaiting the new German government, regardless of who formed it. Some of these measures may not even be mentioned during the election campaign, but they will inevitably be implemented. The course Germany’s next government takes will heavily influence the direction of the rest of Europe.

This article was previously published on the news portal nap.ba.

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