More than a month has passed since Bashar al-Assad stopped ruling Syria. Power has been taken over by Ahmed al-Sharaa, a former member of ISIS and Al-Qaeda. Despite this, the major powers have not turned their backs on him. Particularly interesting is how some European powers are approaching a man who was until recently on the U.S. most-wanted list, with a $10 million bounty on his head.
Ahmed al-Sharaa, also known as Abu Mohammed al-Golani, likely never imagined that his path through Al-Qaeda, ISIS, an American prison in Iraq, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), the war against the Kurds, (pro-)Iranian Shiite militias, the Iraqi army, Russia, Iran, and Syria would lead him to power in Damascus.
The leader of HTS is now the ruler of Syria, excluding parts where Kurdish and foreign (American, Turkish, Russian, Israeli) troops are present. This seems to be enough for him to assume the functions of the internationally recognized government in Damascus. The West is not looking into its past but rather seeks to pursue its interests.
The Pragmatic al-Sharaa
The ice-breaking visit to the HTS leader was initiated by the Americans. Barbara Leaf, the U.S. Assistant Secretary of State, described her meeting with him in Damascus about twenty days ago as “very productive,” adding that al-Sharaa is “pragmatic.” Shortly thereafter, Washington removed him from its most-wanted list.
A meeting with a man whose organization is designated as a terrorist by Washington is not surprising—great powers often prioritize their interests over the principles they publicly advocate. Turkish, Qatari, and other Arab officials, who previously supported the overthrow of Assad, have also visited Damascus. All of them expect concessions from the new Syrian leader and offer assistance, investments, and reconstruction in return. The new Syrian Foreign Minister has even embarked on a mini tour, holding talks with officials from Jordan, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates.
The time has now come for leading European Union powers, although, except for France, their influence in the Middle East is minimal. Last week, German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock and her French counterpart Jean-Noël Barrot visited Damascus. While Baerbock was not greeted with handshakes, she was received warmly. According to announcements, Italy’s Foreign Minister is also set to visit Damascus, likely signaling the recognition of the new Syrian government by European powers.
A few days before these visits, the European Union’s Foreign Affairs Chief Kaja Kallas stated that Brussels should ease sanctions on Syria, as HTS had been “saying the right things.” She added that actions are now expected, including the closure of Russian military bases in Syria to diminish Russian influence.
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen was more explicit. “Now we must intensify our direct engagement with HTS and other factions,” she said after a meeting in Ankara with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in mid-December.
The visits by German and French diplomats have drawn significant attention across the Middle East. The government in Damascus seeks the lifting of Western sanctions and assistance in rebuilding the country. In return, it is expected to formally respect human and minority rights and curb terrorist threats.
Europe’s Concerns and Plans
However, European powers are focused on other matters, with democracy being the least of their concerns. In short, the image of the Damascus government matters, but the primary focus is on energy, the security of Israel, Iran’s and Russia’s positions, and the return of Syrian refugees.
European countries are increasingly concerned about Turkey's growing influence in the Middle East. Turkey is becoming an energy hub for resources from Russia, Azerbaijan, Iraq, and potentially Syria, Qatar, and Libya in the future. Ankara’s independent policies worry Brussels, as Erdogan is acting in Turkey’s interests. Any further strengthening of Ankara’s position in the Middle East gives Erdogan additional leverage.
If the new Syrian government were to adopt a more independent stance from Ankara, Brussels might hope to reduce its energy dependency on Turkey. Many European countries currently rely on the TurkStream pipeline, which has become especially important for Europe and Russia after Ukraine halted transit through its territory.
Additionally, European powers expect the new government in Damascus to leave Israel alone and push Russia and Iran out of Syria. This, in turn, would weaken Hezbollah in Lebanon, a country where France has significant influence and long-term interests. Barbara Leaf also demanded the removal of Iran from Syria during her meeting in Damascus, stating afterward, “If I’m judging by today, Iran will play no role and shouldn’t.”
Finally, there is the issue of Syrian refugees and migrants. The issue of illegal migration is becoming increasingly significant in Western politics, with anti-migration parties gaining momentum in elections. This shift in migration policies began even before Assad's fall.
(In)stability of Syria and European Governments
To realize these plans, stability in Syria needs to be ensured, at least temporarily, while its economy is improved. Al-Sharaa stated in late December that the new government would work on stabilizing Syria and that citizens would begin to feel changes in about a year. Still, elections might not be held for another four years.
This stability has already been acknowledged by the German government, which announced this week a plan to return Syrian refugees, as they now consider the country safer following Assad's fall. A few weeks ago, Germany halted the processing of asylum applications from Syrians.
Reports indicate that there are approximately 975,000 Syrian refugees in Germany, about 300,000 of whom are there due to the war. Their residence permits will be revoked once the government determines peace has been established in Syria. However, those with jobs, who speak German or are in education will be allowed to stay. Those willing to return to Syria will be subsidized by the German government. With elections scheduled in Germany for late February, it is believed the plan will yield results by then. Otherwise, anti-migration parties could gain additional support.
This approach might be replicated in other European countries. Turkish authorities are already working on repatriating millions of Syrians they have hosted for years.
The swift actions of Brussels, Paris, and Berlin are a novelty. These power centers often waited to follow Washington’s lead, expecting the world’s largest superpower to direct its allies. In recent months, likely out of uncertainty surrounding newly elected U.S. President Donald Trump, Europeans have acted more decisively.
The change in power in Damascus and the redrawing of influence zones in the Middle East have shaken old European powers, although this comes at the end of the current French and German governments’ terms. Unlike them, the new composition of the European Union’s institutions has just begun its mandate and appears to have a clear plan.
This article was originally published on the news portal nap.ba.
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