Trump and Putin on Ukraine: Can a Deal Be Reached Without Kyiv?

Yesterday, the President of the United States, Donald Trump, and his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin, held a phone conversation. The main topic was Ukraine, although the two presidents showed little interest in bringing Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to the negotiating table.

Photo: Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin

The public is still piecing together fragments of the 90-minute phone call between Trump and Putin, attempting to contextualize it with recent events and connect it to what the U.S. and Russia have been negotiating in recent weeks. Official statements from both sides are being cited, along with remarks from officials close to Trump or Putin, and known positions are being referenced.

Previously, the spectacular meetings between U.S. and Russian presidents have moved to phone and video calls, shrouding their negotiations in mystery to the extreme. Even before, it was clear that the public would only receive crumbs from these meetings, sometimes waiting years to create a broader picture.

However, this time, the public did not have to guess that Ukraine was the main topic of the Trump-Putin conversation. Yesterday, the unwritten diplomatic rule that those not at the table where decisions are made often end up being the subject of those decisions was applied to Ukraine.

About Ukraine Without Zelenskyy

It is no secret that Zelenskyy does not stand well with part of the West, particularly in the United States. A recent scandalous conversation between Zelenskyy and his hosts at the White House revealed what has long been in the air—some U.S. officials want Zelenskyy to step down from the presidency, believing it would be easier to achieve peace in Eastern Europe without him.

On the other hand, Putin has been repeating for months that Zelenskyy is not a partner for negotiations, as his mandate has expired, and that Ukraine needs new elections or for its parliament to elect his successor.

However, the real reason does not lie in Zelenskyy's legitimacy. Washington and Moscow do not pay attention to such "trivialities" when redrawing Ukraine or other states. From the start of the Russian aggression against Ukraine, Zelenskyy has repeatedly stated that he will not agree to cede even the smallest part of the territory to Moscow, and this is the biggest problem that both the White House and the Kremlin have with him. Washington knows that Ukraine does not have the strength to reclaim all lost territories, and the Kremlin knows that Russian resources (economic and human) are not infinite, which is why they want Kyiv to give up the fight as soon as possible and allow decisions to be made about it even after the war.

While Zelenskyy was traveling to Finland, Trump and Putin negotiated about Ukraine and agreed that Russia would stop attacking Ukraine's power grid for 30 days, seek "technical talks" on peace in the Black Sea region, and are ready to agree on ending the war. As reported by the U.S. side, Putin refused to establish a 30-day ceasefire across the entire front. Zelenskyy said he accepted the agreement but needed details about what the two sides discussed.

The agreement on a 30-day halt to attacks on the power grid immediately raised the question of who benefits more. Those defending Trump's stance say it is a good deal for Ukraine, while those defending Putin say it is good for Russia. Both are probably right, as Ukraine saves ammunition for air defense, and Russia saves missiles and drones used in attacks. However, as spring approaches and winter recedes, it seems like a symbolic gesture.

The Same Target, an Even Greater Distance

Putin was not the only one rejecting the other side's demands. The Americans say Putin asked Trump to stop sending weapons to Kyiv and to halt the exchange of intelligence data between the U.S. and Ukraine. Trump rejected the proposal. Zelenskyy commented on this part of the conversation, saying Ukraine would never agree to such a deal.

The fact that Zelenskyy sounds like a commentator on his fate and the future of Ukraine speaks to the absurdity of the Trump-Putin negotiations. If the West has declared Ukraine an important ally, then Kyiv should know what is being negotiated and not appear in public as if informed about the conversation's content through the media. Zelenskyy's message that more details are needed and that he does not trust Russia indicates that he does not overly trust Washington under Trump either, a stance in which he previously received support from European powers.

But Trump wants to broker peace in Eastern Europe at any cost and then turn to Israel and the plan that has bipartisan support in the U.S.—containing China. For this to happen, Kyiv must accept whatever is offered, and Putin must satisfy his territorial ambitions.

Kyiv showed yesterday that this is not acceptable. After partially withdrawing forces from the Russian region of Kursk, Ukrainian troops entered the Belgorod region, about ten kilometers from the state border. This shows Kyiv's intent to once again signal to Moscow that they do not have enough troops for the entire front and that a fair agreement is the only way to end the war. Russia announced yesterday that it had repelled five attempts by Ukrainian forces to enter Russian territory, assessing that Kyiv carried out the operation to sabotage the Trump-Putin talks.

Trump will certainly present the talks with Putin as a success. However, everything indicates that they are at the beginning of a difficult path and that Trump is further from peace than his predecessor, Joseph Biden. Biden tried to break Moscow and bring a "just peace" for Ukraine, while Trump is simultaneously pressuring both sides. Trump's insistence yesterday on peace in the Black Sea region is good news for Ukraine, as it could help retain the city of Odesa, which many see as key to this war.

Whether Trump and Biden discussed only Ukraine is not known to the public. However, Ukraine will sooner or later cease to be the sole topic of conversations between the White House and the Kremlin. Some of the topics that are emerging include the Middle East (Israel, Palestine, Syria, Lebanon, Yemen, and Iran), China, Greenland and the Arctic, Western sanctions against Russia, energy security, and relations with Europe. Both Washington and Moscow are in a hurry to end the war in Ukraine, while Kyiv demands that its interests be respected. The Trump-Putin talks without Ukrainian officials guarantee that some of these desires will not be fulfilled.

This article was previously published on the nap.ba.

---