Vučić and Dodik’s Potemkin Villages Crumble as West Asserts: ‘The State Outlasts the Individual’

In recent weeks, political actors from Bosnia and Herzegovina and Serbia have been discussing how the region is at a turning point. Although their motivations differ, they are correct—the underlying tensions and divisions in the region have become undeniable.

Photo: Aleksandar Vučić and Milorad Dodik

The recent verdict against Milorad Dodik for ignoring the High Representative’s decisions has exposed a decades-old truth. Despite denial by some in Sarajevo and the West, the former Yugoslav region is divided into two political camps. One camp envisions this part of Europe where wealthy autocrats lead feuding tribes from one battle to the next. The other seeks membership in the European Union and NATO.

Following the principle that "what is allowed to Jupiter is not allowed to the ox," Dodik is trying to "prove" that the court has no right to judge. But even if it were as Dodik claims—and it is not—he and his political allies established this court. Thousands of citizens of Bosnia and Herzegovina have appeared before this court and accepted its verdict.

Aleksandar Vučić, the leader of the "Serbian world," who has long presented himself as a regional peacemaker, has supported Dodik. It did not occur to Vučić to say that court decisions must be respected and that justice can be sought through other legal avenues. Vučić should know this, given that he often emphasizes that he was an excellent law student.

Foreign Influence

Nenad Stevandić, the president of the assembly of Republika Srpska—the Serb-dominated entity within Bosnia and Herzegovina—which Dodik governs, said that "in everything it does, Republika Srpska is not alone or isolated, as it has the understanding of Serbia, Hungary, and Croatia." His actions during the aggression against Bosnia and Herzegovina should be addressed by courts.

All major Western powers have expressed support for the institutions of Bosnia and Herzegovina, including the United States, the European Union, France, Germany, the United Kingdom, Italy, Spain, NATO, and the OSCE.

The stance of those Stevandić relies on is likely supported by Russia, at least until the moment they begin trading with the West. In one such exchange, the Kremlin "sold out" Slobodan Milošević. In his book Midnight Diaries, former Russian President Boris Yeltsin wrote about how the West was handed "one of the most cynical politicians they had to deal with," asserting that Milošević committed crimes against non-Serbs and that the Kremlin defended Belgrade solely for Moscow's interests.

On the other hand, there are the countries that were once ideals for Yeltsin and, for many years, for Vladimir Putin and Dmitry Medvedev as presidents and prime ministers of Russia. These same Western countries have been "sold" services by Balkan politicians, often to the detriment of their states.

Those genuinely committed to the Euro-Atlantic path for this part of the world are trying to open the eyes of the West and are calling on Washington and Brussels to change their policy toward the Balkans.

A Warning from Washington

The aforementioned Western powers have issued various statements about the events in Bosnia and Herzegovina, pledging to help domestic institutions do what they are paid to do. But one of these comments has shown the international public the real role on the Balkan political stage.

The second-ranking official in the U.S. Senate, Republican Chuck Grassley, one of the most important U.S. officials, said that the region is threatened by war, genocide, and a refugee crisis. Grassley also stated that Dodik is aided by "separatists among Bosnian Croats" in undermining Bosnia and Herzegovina and warned them that this would not end well for them.

Some dismissed Grassley's remarks from the axis Stevandić appeals to for "understanding," but numerous pieces of evidence suggest the senator spoke the truth. The war against Bosnia and Herzegovina has been ongoing for decades, and nationalist elites in Belgrade and Zagreb have adapted their methods to the circumstances over the years.

This was also evident during the formation of the current Council of Ministers of Bosnia and Herzegovina, when Dodik and the president of the Croatian Democratic Union, Dragan Čović, selected the "Muslim representation." The diplomatic offensive by the West against Russia and its partners in Europe, due to the aggression against Ukraine, was survived by the duo in a "pro-European government" that has not brought much to Bosnia and Herzegovina. Before U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio spoke about the situation in Bosnia and Herzegovina, Dodik talked about changed and favorable circumstances in international politics, while his partners from Mostar spoke of "legitimate representation," the meaning and essence of which even their biggest advocates cannot explain in two coherent sentences.

Senator Grassley, from a prominent position, painted the problem Bosnia and Herzegovina faces and practically explained the core issue to the American public—institutions controlled by ethnic groups. The fact that a verdict against one man could lead to another genocide speaks to the absurdity of Bosnia and Herzegovina's political system. This is an admission from Washington that the Dayton Constitution has expired.

From Kosovo to Bosnia and Herzegovina

If the political matrix is repeating itself across the region, its source is likely at one address. In recent years, we have witnessed similar rebellions as part of the struggle for the "Serbian world." Kosovo, Montenegro, and Bosnia and Herzegovina are under constant threat of ethnic conflicts, with political and police organs looking to Belgrade refusing obedience. Protests organized by the government and the church feature Russian flags and images of Vladimir Putin.

Since taking power, Vučić has pushed the former Yugoslav region to the brink of crisis. Although, for example, Boris Tadić did not abandon Greater Serbian ideas, he did not threaten violence. Yet, Vučić enjoys the support of much of the West because he supposedly maintains peace.

However, in practice, he is turning the Balkans into its worst version—a place of captured institutions, selective courts, and corruption so rampant that it kills random passersby, as shown by the collapse of the roof at the Novi Sad railway station.

Protests against the captured state have been ongoing for months and could reach a turning point this weekend, indicating that a large number of Serbian citizens are tired of Vučić's Potemkin villages. The low turnout at Dodik's rallies shows the same on the other side of the Drina, not just because the population has fled Bosnia and Herzegovina during the rule of "patriots."

We have also seen Vučić fabricating reality in recent days. First, he went to Banja Luka to support Dodik, then invited him to Serbia to address the parliament, which was supposed to discuss Bosnia and Herzegovina, only to publicly ask him not to come. Meanwhile, Dodik insulted those protesting in Serbia and joined Vučić in accusing students of being foreign mercenaries. This is a strange accusation from those who build their government budgets by borrowing from foreigners and, in exchange for support, offer them land, rivers, and minerals.

The changes happening in the West must also affect the Balkans, at least consequentially. Sarajevo, Podgorica, and Priština have been given another opportunity to present their positions and call for Western engagement in this part of the world on a different basis. Periodically extinguishing fires with international military forces is a terrible policy, and pandering to autocrats and politicians who see this part of Europe as a place where European norms do not apply is a pre-written defeat. History teaches us this.

The article was previously published on nap.ba.

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