The past year was defined by notable events, including Donald Trump's return to the White House—a development likely to play a key role in shaping trends that began in 2023 and are expected to continue through 2025.
A year ago, we discussed on this platform the political and economic dynamics expected to shape 2024. Even then, it was clear that the year would be marked by turbulence, culminating in the U.S. presidential election, where Donald Trump triumphed over Kamala Harris following Joseph Biden's withdrawal from the race.
Many are eagerly anticipating Trump’s return to the White House in just over two weeks, holding onto the belief that the 79-year-old president will address their concerns—often overlooking the broader priorities and interests of his own nation.
When Trump takes office, he will be confronted with a packed agenda. His top three priorities are expected to include resolving the war in Ukraine, addressing conflicts in the Middle East while bolstering Israel's position, and navigating the ongoing confrontation with China—a challenge that gained momentum during his first term and was hinted at even during Barack Obama’s presidency.
Priorities and Allies
These issues are a continuation of Biden's agenda, as all three touch the core of U.S. strategic interests. The war in Eastern Europe, on NATO’s borders, serves as a test of Western alliance reliability and is considered one of Trump’s key priorities. Trump himself reinforced this narrative by promising to quickly end the war.
There is no doubt Trump could end or accelerate the war’s conclusion by halting U.S. aid to Kyiv. Conversely, he could prolong the conflict by partially withdrawing U.S. involvement and shifting some responsibilities to European allies.
In negotiations with Russia, Trump is unlikely to have a single plan. This is clear to Russia, which seeks the lifting of sanctions and is grappling with economic challenges. Current battlefield dynamics give Moscow hope that Ukraine’s military might collapse before Russia’s economy does.
However, the war in Ukraine is not Trump’s primary concern. Far more significant to him is ensuring that the U.S.’s key ally, Israel, achieves its goals in the Middle East. Trump’s administration is expected to be filled with pro-Israel personnel, likely the most in Washington’s history. These individuals will undoubtedly support Israel in every way possible.
Such support could prove crucial, especially as the Assad family dynasty has been overthrown in neighboring Syria, fundamentally altering the Middle East. Damascus is now controlled by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), the former Syrian Al-Qaeda, and Washington has recently shown a willingness to collaborate with them.
Specifically, HTS is expected to leave Israel in peace, attack Iran and pro-Iranian forces in the region, and, in return, gain sanctions relief and acceptance from the West. Biden initiated this approach, and Trump demonstrated during his first term that he knows how to play by these rules—remember his meetings with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un.
Stabilizing the Middle East and redistributing zones of influence will be a significant part of Trump’s policy. His approach to Iran and Tehran’s behavior will dictate the region’s dynamics in the coming year, with Turkey playing a pivotal role. Meanwhile, a group of Arab states will closely monitor the actions of the new administration in Damascus.
While it may seem the cards are aligned for the West to dominate the Middle East completely, the reality is more complicated. Major conflicts in the region would divert the U.S. focus from China, giving Beijing more time to prepare for its confrontation with Washington. This makes peace in the Middle East essential for Trump, alongside guarantees for Israel to maintain its dominant position.
Europe and the Rest of the World
In 2025, Europe will continue grappling with the same issues it has faced for years while adhering to previous policies. The exception may be migration policy, which could see significant changes. If not, right-wing and anti-establishment parties could gain further strength.
Nevertheless, Europe will primarily focus on Trump’s policies and how to safeguard its interests under an unpredictable White House occupant. This could create two blocs: those who unconditionally support Trump and his policies and those advocating for Europe’s voice to be heard.
Beyond Europe, this divide already exists, and four years of Trump’s presidency will not be enough to dismantle all of America’s adversaries or secure agreements with all of them. Confrontations with China, Russia, Iran, North Korea, Venezuela, and others remain central to Washington’s focus.
Domestically, Trump will face challenges related to illegal immigration, combating drug addiction, building an economy less reliant on foreign partners, and creating a new economic and political model influenced by billionaire Elon Musk.
These issues will also impact India, a rising power. How Trump engages with the world's most populous country, courted by both Russia and China, will determine the role of BRICS, whose growth is eagerly anticipated by numerous nations, including Brazil, South Africa, Iran, Ethiopia, and Egypt. The group’s attempt to “de-dollarize” the global economy may also provoke a strong response from Trump.
Musk’s influence will also be interesting to watch within the context of Argentina’s political and economic experiment led by Javier Milei, who has backing from parts of the American political and business community. Milei’s success or failure will significantly affect relations in Latin America.
The Year of Trump
In summary, 2025 could very well be Trump’s year—a year in which the world’s leading superpower sets the course while others adapt and develop their policies in response. Trump’s first term demonstrated that almost anything is possible with him, but the world has changed, and Trump knows this, meaning success is far from guaranteed.
Technology continues to infiltrate every aspect of our lives. The use of artificial intelligence will reach unprecedented levels this year, influencing everything from the simplest tasks to the battlefield, communications, and political struggles.
Advanced technology could also aid in combating climate change. For decades, Western nations have led in this area, but Trump’s return to the White House jeopardizes those plans. Simply put, Trump doesn’t care about climate change.
Distrust isn’t confined to Western allies. Recent reports indicate that 2025 will set records in defense spending, with global expenditures expected to reach $2.5 trillion. The largest contributors will be the U.S., China, and Russia.
In recent weeks, these three powers have showcased advanced missile systems (with Russia claiming they are undefeatable), sixth-generation fighter jets (which China claims surpass anything else), and Trump’s earlier announcement of plans to conquer space, potentially revitalizing the U.S. military.
In a year when the world looks to Trump, global powers are looking to weaponry as a guarantee for securing their interests. Only then, perhaps, will the interests of ordinary people around the world come into play.
This article was originally published on the news portal nap.ba.
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