Will Iran’s Nuclear Sites Be Bombed—and Will Tehran Finally Build the Bomb?

Once again, Iran’s nuclear program is a top priority for U.S. President Donald Trump. This time, after threatening sanctions, his administration is also warning of military action if Tehran refuses to comply with demands from Washington and Israel.

Photo: Illustration

The Obama administration reached a nuclear deal with Iran in 2015. Tehran limited its activities in this field and, in return, received sanctions relief. China, Russia, Germany, the United Kingdom, and France were also signatories to the agreement.

Two years later, Trump withdrew the US from the deal and imposed sanctions on Iran. This was a major victory for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who opposed the deal with Iran.

Since 2015, the Middle East has changed, but some plans remain on the table. One of them is the overthrow of the government in Tehran. Iran remains the only country from the list mentioned in the famous statement by US General Wesley Clark, who allegedly was told in the Pentagon after September 11, 2001, that the United States, after Afghanistan, would overthrow "seven countries in five years." That list, besides Afghanistan, included Iraq, Syria, Libya, Lebanon, Sudan, Somalia, and Iran.

Trump's Second Term

With the fall of Bashar al-Assad, who was replaced in power in Damascus by former ISIL and al-Qaeda member Ahmed al-Sharaa and who quickly became a partner of Washington and the European Union, the only country remaining from Clark's famous list is Iran. All other countries on the list have experienced wars in this century, and their governments have been changed, in some places multiple times.

The Israeli lobby helped Trump return to the White House. His appointments further confirm this. Netanyahu, after pressuring Trump to withdraw the US from the Iran nuclear deal, is now pressuring Trump to take military action against Tehran.

But Iran is stronger than all the countries on that list, although significantly weakened after Assad's fall and Hezbollah's losses in Lebanon in the war against Israel. Netanyahu does not want to miss this opportunity, so Trump is once again dealing with Iran, even though the US interest is to urgently address China.

Since taking office, Trump has been sending messages to Iran in his style. Other US officials have done the same. Some of the terms mentioned were "hell," "strikes," "sanctions," "maximum pressure," all if Iran does not agree to Washington's demands. And Washington's demand has been for decades that Iran not build nuclear weapons, while Tehran claims that it is not its goal.

About ten days ago, Trump surprised the public. He announced that negotiations with Iran would begin during Netanyahu's visit to the White House. The world soon learned that the host of indirect talks between the two countries would be Oman, and just before Trump's announcement, the public learned that the US president had written to Iranian Ayatollah Ali Khamenei requesting talks.

Oman Negotiations

Since Trump's first term, Iran has not been at peace. In addition to banning international inspections of its facilities for a certain period, it has begun enriching uranium. Many experts claim Iran is on the threshold of building nuclear weapons, if it so decides.

For years, Iran has claimed its nuclear program is for civilian use. However, some believe this concept should be abandoned. Some Iranian politicians have called on Ayatollah Khamenei to issue a fatwa calling for the acquisition of nuclear weapons. One of Iran's most important political figures for decades has been Ali Larijani, now Khamenei's advisor. At the end of last month, he said Tehran would develop nuclear weapons if the US or Israel attacked Iranian nuclear facilities.

Attacks on Iranian nuclear facilities are precisely the topic, as a threat hanging in the air while the US military has been building up forces in the Middle East for weeks. After the first meeting in Oman, attended by US envoy Steve Witkoff and Iranian Foreign Ministry chief Abbas Araghchi, Tehran announced that a second round of talks would take place in the same country on April 19, just seven days after the first. Araghchi said this meeting would establish the "general framework of a future agreement."

News of the negotiations reached the public from various sides. Some media reported, citing their sources, that the Muscat talks took place in a good atmosphere. Then, Iran had requested the re-signing of the deal Trump abandoned in 2017 and proposed the denuclearization of the Middle East, including Israel.

The Oman talks surprised many, especially since not long ago, Khamenei said talking with Washington was impossible because they do not honor agreements. Yet talks happened. And Iran's proposals, if the media reports are accurate, undermine the entire US and Israeli policy concept toward Tehran. Indeed, one of Washington's arguments has been that Iran would trigger a nuclear arms race in the Middle East, after previously claiming Iran wants such weapons. If these Iranian demands were accepted, those two claims would be completely discredited.

Trump's Plans and the Balance of Power

In Paris, too, many believe war is at the door. French Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot said earlier this month that "in case of (negotiation) failure, military confrontation seems almost inevitable" and added that Paris' position is that "Iran must never acquire nuclear weapons."

US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth confirmed this a few days ago. "If we can't resolve this at the negotiating table, there are other options to ensure Iran never gets a nuclear bomb," he said. "With what we're doing against the Houthis and in the region, we've shown we can go far, deep, and very hard (...). We don't want to get to that point, but if necessary, we will do so to prevent Iran from developing a nuclear bomb."

In May 2023, several months before Hamas's October 7 attack on southern Israel, Israeli military chief Herzi Halevi spoke about Iranian nuclear facilities. "Iran has advanced in uranium enrichment further than ever before... On the horizon are negative developments that could lead to (military) action," he said, without specifying who would act against Iran, when or how. "We have the capabilities, and others also have capabilities," Halevi added.

Yesterday, Trump spoke about the Oman talks and concluded that Iran is stalling, even though only a few days have passed since the meeting. "I think they're just leading us on. Iran must give up the idea of nuclear weapons. They can't have nuclear weapons," he said, adding that US options "include" a military strike on Iranian nuclear facilities.

The Iranian side doesn't trust the other side either. Yesterday, Ayatollah Khamenei said the Oman talks "implemented their initial steps well" but that Iran is "very skeptical" of the other side. "We are neither overly optimistic nor overly pessimistic about these talks," he added.

Yesterday's statements by Trump and Khamenei confirm the poor relations between Washington and Tehran, but also show this is not about trust. Simply, it is about the possibility of using force and calculating the gains and losses if war were to break out. Washington knows Iran's capabilities, just as Tehran knows the capabilities of the United States, Israel, and their allies in the region.

Trump must now decide whether he is willing to pay the price of attacking Iran, after not doing so in his first term, or whether he will agree to a deal similar to Obama's and thus admit he made a mistake by abandoning the agreement. Demands that Iran abandon its missile program and behave as Netanyahu wants are also on the table, and it is hard to believe Tehran will accept them. In other words, Trump must decide, while Americans expect him not to start wars as he promised throughout his political career, whether he will once again fulfill Netanyahu's wishes.

This article was previously published on nap.ba

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